The Big Short’s Michael Burry Throws Cold Water on SpaceX and Anthropic’s $1 Trillion Valuation

📰 News Summary

• Michael Burry, the prominent investor who inspired the film “The Big Short,” has raised serious doubts about the exorbitant valuations of SpaceX and Anthropic.
• Based on SpaceX’s IPO prospectus (S-1), he declared that the company’s revenues of $18.7 billion against a net loss of $4.9 billion “does not even suggest a trillion-dollar value.”
• Regarding the AI startup Anthropic, he pointed out that the $965 billion valuation lacks “long-term guarantees or possibilities.”

💡 Key Points

• Burry criticizes the current cutting-edge AI model development as “too costly and too brute-force.”
• He predicts that computing resources will evolve into a “commodity” over time, much like internet usage.
• He warns that the current frenzied demand for computing resources is a “false demand signal” and could lead to overcapacity in a few years.

🦈 Shark’s Eye (Curator’s Perspective)

Burry’s observations hit right at the limits of the AI industry’s “quantity over quality” approach! Today’s AI model development relies on pouring massive amounts of capital and computing resources, but his perspective that this is merely “brute force” is razor-sharp. Particularly striking is his prediction that, just as internet connection fees became nearly negligible, the value of computing resources powering AI could plummet, cooling off the currently soaring GPU market! His sardonic remark about “counting to a trillion before paying” and reconsidering it in 240,000 years strongly conveys his conviction!

🚀 What’s Next?

If Burry’s predictions hold true, the trend of “Tokenmaxxing” may come to an end, leading to surplus computing resources and potentially reshaping the landscape of the AI industry. Investors could enter a phase seeking “real value,” making valuation adjustments (bubble bursts) increasingly plausible.

💬 A Word from HaruSame

No matter how deep the ocean is, the bottom will eventually be revealed. The “bottom of the AI bubble” that Burry sees might be darker and colder than we can imagine…! 🦈❄️

📚 Terminology Explained

• S-1: A public draft submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) when a company is planning to go public in the U.S. It contains detailed financial information.

• Brute Force: In AI development, a method that relies more on pushing vast amounts of data and computing resources than on optimizing algorithms for efficiency.

• Commoditization: The process by which formerly high-value products or services become indistinguishable due to widespread adoption, resulting in a focus solely on price competition.

• Source: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T